Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TTU +175 BAY -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -4.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -0.9 (-7.1) | 144.4 (-16.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.5 (-5.5) | 140.7 (-12.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.2 (-6.8) | 145.3 (-17.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -0.7 (-7.3) | 145.1 (-17.1) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 28-2 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 13-1 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 7-1 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.2 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#16) | 23.3 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#22) | 4.38 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#24) | 6.48 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#62) | 0.613 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 42.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 26.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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