Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -450 UAPB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +35 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -11.0 (+24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -8.9 (+26.1) | 145.1 (-4.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -8.4 (+26.6) | 144.8 (-3.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -9.0 (+26.0) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -8.8 (+26.2) | 143.9 (-2.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SOU 84 – 81 UAPB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UAPB 75 – 74 SOU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SOU 83 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SOU 80 – 66 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UAPB 62 – 55 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 4-21 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 3-12 |
| Home | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#302) | -17.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#221) | -1.85 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#233) | -3.42 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#184) | 0.436 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.5% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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