I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–12 on winners spread MAE 10.9 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Indiana +4.4 135.1 67% 81–69 ✗
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's +3.8 132.9 67% 57–77 ✓
Bryant @ Saint Francis -8.3 155.1 22% 82–89 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart +3.1 152.9 65% 48–65 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner +0.3 135.5 56% 77–66 ✗
Belmont @ Tennessee Tech -11.6 145.9 15% 88–67 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +12.5 149.9 87% 61–72 ✓
Presbyterian @ Campbell +7.1 141.2 75% 46–48 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +3.1 143.4 65% 87–63 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana +10.0 131.5 84% 56–67 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International +8.8 146.0 81% 81–79 ✗
San Francisco @ Portland -11.2 147.9 17% 79–63 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +8.7 144.8 82% 64–71 ✓
Tennessee State @ Jacksonville State +9.9 132.5 86% 64–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +21.8 165.4 91% 70–95 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +3.2 132.2 65% 45–57 ✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois +3.3 134.5 64% 87–61 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -4.2 135.1 31% 74–54 ✓
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington +3.7 149.7 66% 63–75 ✓
Washington @ USC +17.7 143.2 91% 68–95 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -14.6 150.5 14% 90–57 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon State -9.9 145.5 20% 98–64 ✓
BYU @ Saint Mary's +0.4 132.1 52% 62–52 ✗
Hofstra @ Delaware -3.8 134.8 31% 56–74 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Denver -13.6 150.7 14% 88–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +15.3 141.0 90% 75–83 ✓
Old Dominion @ Rice +2.4 144.4 62% 59–69 ✓
Bryant @ Saint Francis -7.3 157.6 24% 72–63 ✓
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's +4.4 131.9 70% 52–63 ✓
Niagara @ Manhattan -5.2 131.6 28% 49–58 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +10.5 144.6 86% 80–92 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +7.0 131.8 77% 63–73 ✓
Marshall @ Western Kentucky +1.1 150.3 54% 73–81 ✓
UAB @ Charlotte -5.2 129.8 30% 61–37 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +5.3 134.4 70% 74–69 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop +12.5 148.9 87% 50–70 ✓
Hampton @ South Carolina Upstate +2.6 139.4 60% 84–74 ✗
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State +2.5 130.5 58% 66–43 ✗
Troy @ Georgia Southern +3.6 131.1 64% 64–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.