Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | IU -150 PUR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -4.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -4.4 (-16.4) | 135.1 (+14.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -2.7 (-14.7) | 132.4 (+17.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -4.0 (-16.0) | 135.1 (+14.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -4.7 (-16.7) | 136.1 (+13.9) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 13-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#34) | 10.5 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#52) | 2.10 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#41) | 3.09 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#74) | 0.584 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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