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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–8 on winners spread MAE 12.3 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Northwestern @ Ohio State	+6.6	144.7	76%	71–81	✓
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts	+1.3	156.9	60%	78–80	✓
Tulsa @ Wichita State	+2.5	137.3	65%	53–72	✓
La Salle @ George Mason	+0.6	135.3	53%	42–75	✓
Duquesne @ Dayton	+5.9	131.3	75%	63–72	✓
Auburn @ Georgia	+4.9	154.4	70%	95–77	✗
Arkansas @ LSU	+3.0	162.7	64%	76–92	✓
Wofford @ VMI	-0.7	143.1	49%	80–78	✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga	+1.7	148.2	56%	80–83	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	-6.5	151.3	24%	76–66	✓
Central Arkansas @ Stephen F. Austin	+0.4	146.3	57%	69–95	✓
Lamar @ Sam Houston	+11.3	144.6	88%	71–96	✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word	+8.5	142.0	82%	61–83	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana	+1.6	131.0	54%	63–76	✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest	+0.6	135.6	48%	77–65	✗
Texas Tech @ Texas	+4.9	140.5	72%	79–77	✗
New Mexico @ Utah Tech	+4.3	142.8	70%	72–63	✗
Boise State @ Wyoming	-11.8	153.4	16%	90–70	✓
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State	+8.3	137.2	80%	56–55	✗
UCF @ Temple	-1.5	137.9	42%	55–62	✗
California @ Colorado	+17.0	139.0	90%	60–89	✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville	+11.3	140.0	86%	54–92	✓
Stanford @ Utah	-2.0	135.7	44%	65–79	✗
Washington State @ UCLA	+9.4	138.8	82%	61–91	✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific	+0.8	131.2	59%	58–79	✓
Hampton @ South Carolina Upstate	+2.8	140.0	63%	69–68	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.