Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -450 CARK +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +26 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -1.5 (+24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.4 (+25.6) | 146.3 (+17.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -3.5 (+22.5) | 150.5 (+13.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.7 (+25.3) | 147.9 (+16.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.7 (+25.3) | 147.8 (+16.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2021 | SFA 79 – 66 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 5-19 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 4-12 |
| Home | 10-1 | 4-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#280) | -5.7 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#315) | -1.56 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#329) | -2.30 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#302) | 0.461 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 29.3% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 39.2% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 45.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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