Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +750 SFA -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +13 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -10.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -9.1 (-3.9) | 157.7 (-12.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -8.6 (-4.4) | 153.7 (-8.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -8.9 (-4.1) | 156.9 (-11.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -8.9 (-4.1) | 158.2 (-13.2) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2021 | SFA 95 – 69 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-19 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 12-3 |
| Home | 4-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#326) | 0.6 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#334) | -0.35 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#337) | -0.67 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#277) | 0.518 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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