Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -500 CHSO +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +38 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -14.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -11.3 (+26.7) | 140.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -10.6 (+27.4) | 142.1 (+3.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -12.4 (+25.6) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -11.4 (+26.6) | 140.5 (+5.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CHSO 92 – 75 UNCA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 83 UNCA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNCA 80 – 60 CHSO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCA 75 – 72 CHSO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 61 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 3-18 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 2-15 |
| Home | 6-4 | 1-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#218) | -14.7 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#265) | -4.65 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#250) | -6.38 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#240) | 0.379 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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