Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -300 TA&M +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +1 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -7.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -8.3 (-9.3) | 137.2 (-26.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.7 (-7.7) | 130.9 (-19.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -8.2 (-9.2) | 134.7 (-23.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -7.8 (-8.8) | 138.1 (-27.1) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TA&M 88 – 68 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSST 70 – 54 TA&M |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TA&M 75 – 69 MSST |
| Feb 25, 2023 | MSST 69 – 62 TA&M |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TA&M 67 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 8-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 66.9 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#87) | 1.2 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#91) | 0.99 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#70) | 1.29 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#117) | 0.501 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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