Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +120 MCN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -9.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -8.5 (+13.5) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -7.6 (+14.4) | 142.4 (+1.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -8.9 (+13.1) | 145.2 (-1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -8.0 (+14.0) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MCN 81 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 2, 2025 | UIW 71 – 67 MCN |
| Feb 4, 2025 | MCN 67 – 65 UIW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MCN 87 – 71 UIW |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MCN 80 – 66 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-14 | 10-14 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 5-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#317) | -17.9 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#328) | -5.01 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.96 (#336) | -7.83 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#296) | 0.254 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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