Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -1400 CAL +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +29 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -21.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -17.0 (+12.0) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -15.7 (+13.3) | 135.1 (+13.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -17.6 (+11.4) | 137.4 (+11.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -17.7 (+11.3) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLO 88 – 78 CAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CAL 82 – 78 COLO |
| Feb 3, 2023 | COLO 59 – 46 CAL |
| Dec 31, 2022 | CAL 80 – 76 COLO |
| Feb 18, 2022 | COLO 70 – 62 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#10) | -1.3 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#29) | -0.39 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#28) | -0.55 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#17) | 0.462 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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