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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–1 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin
@
Michigan
|
+7.4 | 139.9 | 79% | 54–77 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Virginia Tech
|
+10.6 | 146.1 | 85% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Butler
@
St. John's
|
+4.7 | 146.7 | 69% | 57–69 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Boston College
|
+0.7 | 141.5 | 52% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Davidson
|
+12.7 | 150.6 | 88% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Florida
|
+3.0 | 140.4 | 66% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Bowling Green
|
+13.8 | 150.0 | 88% | 88–64 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Ohio
|
+9.0 | 145.0 | 83% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+16.6 | 147.9 | 90% | 63–96 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Oklahoma
|
+8.3 | 139.6 | 80% | 46–82 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
+1.3 | 143.4 | 57% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Grambling
|
+9.3 | 145.8 | 84% | 74–79 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
USC
|
+14.1 | 134.7 | 87% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
North Carolina
|
+2.3 | 142.3 | 58% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Marquette
|
+3.6 | 143.1 | 66% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Kentucky
|
-2.1 | 145.4 | 40% | 85–65 | ✓ |
VCU
@
George Washington
|
-11.9 | 148.3 | 16% | 84–77 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Fordham
|
-13.1 | 126.4 | 15% | 68–54 | ✓ |
Furman
@
The Citadel
|
-4.6 | 161.8 | 35% | 94–88 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Virginia
|
+12.1 | 134.4 | 87% | 68–80 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Florida State
|
+2.7 | 145.1 | 64% | 73–105 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.