Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -110 BTLR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -6.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -4.7 (+7.3) | 146.7 (-20.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -3.9 (+8.1) | 140.4 (-14.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -4.5 (+7.5) | 143.2 (-17.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.1 (+6.9) | 146.3 (-20.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SJU 84 – 70 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SJU 78 – 57 BTLR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SJU 76 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#110) | 0.5 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#113) | 0.29 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#106) | 0.91 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#146) | 0.480 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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