Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -450 EMU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +33 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -20.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -16.6 (+16.4) | 147.9 (+11.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -15.5 (+17.5) | 146.9 (+12.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -18.6 (+14.4) | 147.6 (+11.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -18.5 (+14.5) | 148.2 (+10.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 6-12 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 3-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 5-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#63) | -9.0 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#62) | -1.58 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#54) | -1.95 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#65) | 0.412 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 60.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.