Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | VT +130 DUKE -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | VT -9.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -10.6 (-3.6) | 146.1 (-5.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -7.8 (-0.8) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -10.1 (-3.1) | 145.6 (-4.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -10.1 (-3.1) | 147.3 (-6.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DUKE 72 – 58 VT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DUKE 88 – 65 VT |
| Jan 30, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 67 VT |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DUKE 81 – 65 VT |
| Jan 24, 2023 | VT 78 – 75 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-3 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#37) | 4.2 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#17) | 0.81 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#21) | 1.46 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#36) | 0.475 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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