Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -1400 JOES +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -13.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -12.7 (+1.3) | 150.6 (-4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -11.4 (+2.6) | 147.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -14.4 (-0.4) | 148.4 (-2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -12.9 (+1.1) | 151.1 (-5.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Home | 7-4 | 3-3 |
| Away | 4-2 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#89) | -4.7 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | -1.50 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#119) | -1.94 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#150) | 0.466 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 80.4% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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