Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | USC -1200 UCR +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | USC -15.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -14.1 (-9.1) | 134.7 (-5.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -12.1 (-7.1) | 136.8 (-7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -14.4 (-9.4) | 136.2 (-7.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -15.5 (-10.5) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 5-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#12) | 4.5 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#24) | -0.06 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.96 (#25) | -0.24 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#19) | 0.428 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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