Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UK -150 ALA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +20 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -3.4 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -2.1 (-17.9) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -1.7 (-18.3) | 147.7 (+2.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.5 (-18.5) | 150.7 (-0.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.7 (-18.3) | 147.1 (+2.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALA 89 – 74 UK |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ALA 99 – 70 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALA 102 – 97 UK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UK 117 – 95 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 26-7 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#80) | 13.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#119) | 2.54 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#90) | 3.58 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#100) | 0.639 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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