Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -120 MISS +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -3.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -3.0 (+6.0) | 140.4 (-5.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -2.6 (+6.4) | 137.0 (-2.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.6 (+6.4) | 142.9 (-7.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -3.0 (+6.0) | 141.5 (-6.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FLA 94 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MISS 103 – 85 FLA |
| Feb 15, 2023 | FLA 79 – 64 MISS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | FLA 62 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#54) | 9.5 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#78) | 0.73 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#83) | 1.52 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#69) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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