Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GW +650 VCU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -12.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -11.4 (+4.4) | 149.3 (+11.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -9.2 (+2.2) | 147.9 (+13.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -11.9 (+4.9) | 148.3 (+12.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -10.7 (+3.7) | 149.1 (+11.9) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | VCU 89 – 75 GW |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VCU 80 – 72 GW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GW 84 – 82 VCU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VCU 74 – 68 GW |
| Jan 12, 2022 | VCU 84 – 57 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-12 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 3-5 | 10-4 |
| Home | 3-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-5 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#243) | 10.3 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#298) | 1.68 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#290) | 2.20 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#301) | 0.573 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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