Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -2400 GW +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +27 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -19.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -17.4 (+9.6) | 130.2 (+10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -18.1 (+8.9) | 131.1 (+9.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -15.7 (+11.3) | 129.0 (+12.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -17.1 (+9.9) | 126.8 (+14.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | VCU 89 – 75 GW |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VCU 80 – 72 GW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GW 84 – 82 VCU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VCU 74 – 68 GW |
| Jan 13, 2021 | VCU 84 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#58) | -7.1 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#59) | -1.52 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#61) | -1.70 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#49) | 0.400 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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