Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GW +340 VCU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -7.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -5.1 (-2.9) | 138.3 (+13.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -5.7 (-2.3) | 138.6 (+13.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -5.2 (-2.8) | 137.3 (+14.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -4.5 (-3.5) | 137.5 (+14.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | VCU 89 – 75 GW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GW 84 – 82 VCU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VCU 74 – 68 GW |
| Jan 12, 2022 | VCU 84 – 57 GW |
| Jan 13, 2021 | VCU 84 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#121) | 13.0 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#132) | 1.68 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#119) | 2.39 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#143) | 0.579 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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