Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -6.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -6.8 (+0.8) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -6.1 (+0.1) | 144.0 (-2.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -5.8 (-0.2) | 146.9 (-4.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -6.0 (-0.0) | 148.5 (-6.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | VCU 89 – 75 GW |
| Feb 13, 2025 | VCU 80 – 72 GW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GW 84 – 82 VCU |
| Jan 12, 2022 | VCU 84 – 57 GW |
| Jan 13, 2021 | VCU 84 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 62.9 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#214) | 7.8 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#174) | 1.55 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#194) | 1.68 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#183) | 0.590 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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