Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -270 GW +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -5.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -7.5 (+6.5) | 156.6 (+7.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -7.5 (+6.5) | 154.2 (+9.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -7.7 (+6.3) | 154.2 (+9.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -7.2 (+6.8) | 155.0 (+9.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | VCU 80 – 72 GW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GW 84 – 82 VCU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VCU 74 – 68 GW |
| Jan 12, 2022 | VCU 84 – 57 GW |
| Jan 13, 2021 | VCU 84 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#48) | 8.9 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#48) | 0.35 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#45) | 0.67 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#40) | 0.529 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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