Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -450 ND +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -13.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -12.1 (-0.1) | 134.4 (+13.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -10.7 (+1.3) | 129.3 (+18.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -14.4 (-2.4) | 133.3 (+14.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -12.5 (-0.5) | 135.8 (+12.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UVA 100 – 97 ND |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ND 74 – 59 UVA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UVA 65 – 53 ND |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ND 76 – 54 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UVA 57 – 55 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-5 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#27) | 1.8 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#80) | -0.24 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#63) | -0.29 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#97) | 0.470 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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