Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +750 SBU -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +14 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -19.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -13.1 (-0.9) | 126.4 (-4.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -13.6 (-0.4) | 124.5 (-2.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -16.1 (+2.1) | 130.0 (-8.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -15.7 (+1.7) | 128.6 (-6.6) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SBU 70 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 10, 2026 | FOR 81 – 77 SBU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SBU 86 – 66 FOR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SBU 85 – 67 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-12 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 11-4 |
| Home | 2-5 | 8-1 |
| Away | 0-6 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 51.8 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#331) | 8.4 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#282) | 1.98 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.70 (#326) | 2.56 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#317) | 0.602 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 21.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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