Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -175 PROV +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -3.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -3.6 (+6.4) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -2.8 (+7.2) | 140.8 (+7.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -3.2 (+6.8) | 143.4 (+4.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -3.7 (+6.3) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 9-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#67) | 7.0 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#67) | 1.61 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#65) | 2.34 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#78) | 0.552 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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