Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -163 NCSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +32 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -0.7 (+31.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -2.7 (+29.3) | 145.1 (+32.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -2.9 (+29.1) | 144.7 (+33.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -1.3 (+30.7) | 145.9 (+32.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -1.8 (+30.2) | 145.8 (+32.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | NCSU 113 – 69 FSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 74 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FSU 90 – 83 NCSU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | NCSU 94 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | FSU 89 – 76 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 9-8 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#59) | 10.8 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#55) | 1.01 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#53) | 1.40 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#72) | 0.517 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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