Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BC +130 MIA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -1.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -0.7 (+21.3) | 141.5 (+4.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -0.1 (+21.9) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -0.4 (+21.6) | 142.9 (+3.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BC -0.3 (+21.7) | 142.7 (+3.3) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-16 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 4-15 |
| Home | 3-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 0-7 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#155) | 4.9 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#203) | 0.84 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#173) | 1.21 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#178) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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