Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -110 ARK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +16 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -0.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -3.0 (+13.0) | 162.7 (+5.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -1.0 (+15.0) | 159.6 (+8.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -2.9 (+13.1) | 165.5 (+2.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -2.8 (+13.2) | 163.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-10 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 13-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#15) | 17.9 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#43) | 2.26 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#48) | 3.20 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#19) | 0.577 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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