Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +320 LOU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -1.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.6 (-12.6) | 135.6 (+6.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.5 (-11.5) | 129.8 (+12.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -0.2 (-12.2) | 133.4 (+8.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.1 (-12.1) | 136.4 (+5.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LOU 88 – 80 WAKE |
| Jan 29, 2025 | LOU 72 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAKE 90 – 65 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | WAKE 80 – 72 LOU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | WAKE 99 – 77 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-5 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#90) | 10.3 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#235) | 3.52 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#215) | 4.17 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#253) | 0.679 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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