Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -225 DUQ +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -7.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.9 (+3.1) | 131.3 (+3.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.7 (+4.3) | 130.6 (+4.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.6 (+2.4) | 130.3 (+4.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.7 (+3.3) | 132.0 (+3.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-3 | 5-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#121) | -1.6 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#123) | -0.65 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#82) | -0.50 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#127) | 0.470 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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