Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -188 LAS +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +33 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -0.2 (+33.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.6 (+32.4) | 135.3 (-18.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.7 (+32.3) | 133.4 (-16.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.9 (+32.1) | 136.1 (-19.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.4 (+32.6) | 135.9 (-18.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GMU 80 – 75 LAS |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GMU 69 – 62 LAS |
| Jan 3, 2024 | GMU 77 – 62 LAS |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GMU 70 – 66 LAS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | LAS 83 – 78 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#209) | 0.4 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#176) | -0.09 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#208) | -0.03 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.483 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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