Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UTC +110 MER -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MER -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -1.7 (+1.3) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.4 (+2.6) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -1.8 (+1.2) | 150.3 (+12.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -1.0 (+2.0) | 149.7 (+13.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-8 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-9 |
| Home | 9-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#132) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#112) | 1.29 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#119) | 1.78 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#120) | 0.551 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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