Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -163 HAMP +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -3.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -2.8 (-3.8) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -2.8 (-3.8) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -3.1 (-4.1) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -2.9 (-3.9) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2022 | UPST 85 – 78 HAMP |
| Jan 15, 2021 | HAMP 84 – 74 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#294) | -8.8 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#267) | -2.10 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#256) | -3.05 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#214) | 0.364 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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