Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -163 HAMP +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +10 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -2.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -3.0 (-13.0) | 139.4 (+18.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -2.6 (-12.6) | 139.4 (+18.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -2.7 (-12.7) | 139.7 (+18.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -2.5 (-12.5) | 141.7 (+16.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2022 | UPST 85 – 78 HAMP |
| Jan 14, 2021 | HAMP 69 – 68 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#297) | -8.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#302) | -1.81 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#272) | -2.86 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#245) | 0.381 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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