Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UTU +120 UNM -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -5.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -4.3 (-13.3) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -4.0 (-13.0) | 137.8 (-2.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -4.0 (-13.0) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -4.5 (-13.5) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-13 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 2-15 |
| Home | 5-7 | 1-4 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#299) | -11.8 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#178) | -1.06 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#224) | -1.51 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#116) | 0.500 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 39.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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