Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +1800 CSU -3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +33 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -21.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -14.6 (-18.4) | 150.5 (-3.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -13.9 (-19.1) | 148.6 (-1.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -19.6 (-13.4) | 152.2 (-5.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -17.6 (-15.4) | 149.1 (-2.1) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 0-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -16.9 (#338) | 7.1 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#334) | 2.26 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.54 (#332) | 2.37 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#321) | 0.640 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 12.0% |
Game Analysis
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