Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MAN +150 NIA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +9 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -7.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -5.2 (+14.2) | 131.6 (-24.6) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -4.7 (+13.7) | 129.7 (-22.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -4.8 (+13.8) | 131.8 (-24.8) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -5.7 (+14.7) | 132.5 (-25.5) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-6 | 5-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#324) | -2.2 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#288) | -0.56 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#298) | -0.62 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#325) | 0.453 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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