Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | USU +100 SDSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | USU -3.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.2 (+8.8) | 132.2 (-30.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.7 (+8.3) | 124.7 (-22.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.0 (+9.0) | 129.3 (-27.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.2 (+8.8) | 128.4 (-26.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 14-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#39) | 10.4 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#88) | 2.50 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#116) | 3.28 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.650 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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