Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -250 PRST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -10.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -8.7 (-1.7) | 144.8 (-9.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.4 (-0.4) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -9.5 (-2.5) | 146.5 (-11.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.9 (-1.9) | 144.7 (-9.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-10 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Home | 5-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#184) | -8.4 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#156) | -1.61 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#177) | -2.68 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#120) | 0.381 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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