We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
E.A. Diddle Arena · January 15, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread WKU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money WKU -163 / MRSH +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total WKU win
Actual WKU +8 154 Won
Massey MRSH -3.2 (+11.2) — —
Massey Totals — 154.0 (-0.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 66% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 61% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WKU -0.3 (+7.7) 148.6 (+5.4) 60% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML WKU -1.1 (+6.9) 150.3 (+3.7) 54% ✓
Baseline ML WKU -0.5 (+7.5) 151.0 (+3.0) 55% ✓
Baseline Plus ML WKU -0.9 (+7.1) 153.7 (+0.3) 60% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 11, 2025 MRSH 77 – 61 WKU
Dec 1, 2024 WKU 90 – 82 MRSH
Mar 5, 2022 WKU 78 – 69 MRSH
Mar 3, 2022 WKU 86 – 72 MRSH
Jan 17, 2021 WKU 69 – 67 MRSH

Game Analysis

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