Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -150 MRMK +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +11 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -6.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.4 (+6.6) | 131.9 (-16.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -4.8 (+6.2) | 130.1 (-15.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -4.8 (+6.2) | 133.5 (-18.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -6.1 (+4.9) | 133.8 (-18.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | MRMK 87 – 70 MSM |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MRMK 75 – 65 MSM |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 57 – 55 MRMK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MSM 66 – 58 MRMK |
| Feb 4, 2022 | MSM 69 – 53 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#205) | -6.1 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#161) | -0.34 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#174) | -0.52 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.408 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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