Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -188 FAIR +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -9.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -7.0 (+3.0) | 131.8 (+4.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -7.0 (+3.0) | 130.3 (+5.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -7.6 (+2.4) | 132.0 (+4.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -8.1 (+1.9) | 131.8 (+4.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-9 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#243) | -11.7 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#172) | -2.33 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#196) | -2.53 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#154) | 0.379 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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