Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -110 LIU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -1.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -0.3 (-11.3) | 135.5 (+7.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -0.9 (-11.9) | 139.1 (+3.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -0.5 (-10.5) | 142.0 (+1.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -0.3 (-11.3) | 137.0 (+6.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LIU 64 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 17, 2026 | LIU 83 – 65 WAG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | LIU 67 – 57 WAG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#195) | -0.5 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#218) | 0.90 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#157) | 0.85 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#211) | 0.498 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 26.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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