Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SAM +260 UNCG -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +24 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -4.1 (-28.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -3.1 (-27.1) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -1.5 (-25.5) | 143.7 (+6.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -2.2 (-26.2) | 146.5 (+3.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.4 (-26.4) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 2-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-5 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#151) | -0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#166) | 0.03 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#144) | 0.10 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.508 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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