Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -800 NAU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +11 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -15.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -10.0 (+1.0) | 131.5 (-8.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -9.8 (+1.2) | 129.8 (-6.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -9.5 (+1.5) | 129.6 (-6.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -10.1 (+0.9) | 131.8 (-8.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 1-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#163) | -12.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#264) | -2.64 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#238) | -3.95 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#204) | 0.413 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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