Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -2000 LONG +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -15.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -12.5 (-1.5) | 149.9 (-16.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -11.8 (-0.8) | 141.1 (-8.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -12.2 (-1.2) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -12.9 (-1.9) | 149.9 (-16.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-2 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-0 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#81) | -5.5 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#15) | -2.29 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#17) | -2.53 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#40) | 0.371 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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