Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -200 FAIR +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -9.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -8.3 (-11.3) | 133.7 (-26.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -7.2 (-10.2) | 129.5 (-22.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -8.1 (-11.1) | 131.7 (-24.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -8.7 (-11.7) | 133.2 (-26.2) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-9 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#248) | -12.2 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#172) | -2.45 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#202) | -2.74 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#167) | 0.379 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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