Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +2000 CSU -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +27 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -23.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -14.9 (-12.1) | 150.1 (-1.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -14.2 (-12.8) | 149.2 (-0.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -17.7 (-9.3) | 151.8 (-2.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -17.4 (-9.6) | 148.9 (+0.1) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 0-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -18.0 (#341) | 8.1 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#335) | 2.10 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.55 (#333) | 2.14 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#299) | 0.594 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 11.6% |
Game Analysis
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